Business As Unusual
Things aren’t going to go back to normal for your business.
It is difficult to write, difficult to conceive of, and difficult to process. But the hard truth is that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the United States, and the world, permanently. This applies to many facets of life, including our political structure and social policies, but for now I want to focus on businesses and how their reality looks moving forward.
So take a deep breath, find a good reading chair in your (home) office, and let’s prepare your business for the new post-pandemic paradigm.
*Like many of you, I have struggled to discuss the impact of COVID-19 as it relates to my business and personal world in the face of the heartbreaking loss of life that is occurring across the globe. I don’t know if there is a right way to do it. So as you read this, please know that I fully understand that for many (myself included at times), this information may seem unimportant relative to the tragedy the world is experiencing. That’s okay. Use this information as you can and on your own time. Our businesses need to survive and eventually thrive again, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be times in which this component seems insignificant.
Bursting The Bubble of Hope
This is the hardest part. Dispelling the notion that things will go back to how they were before COVID-19 fundamentally changed how many of us think and operate. The shock of this disruption is particularly jarring for those who have dealt with national tragedies like the September 11th attacks or the Great Recession in 2008, but have never experienced something quite as omnipresent and persistent as this virus. I believe that, unlike the Great Recession, there will be no gradual return to the status quo this time around.
What qualifications do I have to make that prediction? Nothing beyond my observations of the world’s response to the virus and the excessive amount of thinkpiece reading I have done (while I probably should have been working to busy my mind with something else). That said, my track record for predicting the path this virus has taken and its consequences has been, unfortunately, quite accurate.
Enough caveating. Here are the underlying principles that drive my assertion about the end of the old ways.
We are one to two years from being free of COVID-19.
Despite promises that things will be back to normal by Easter, May 1st, sometime in May, the reality is that until we have mass contact tracing, testing, and proper protocols for what happens when an outbreak does reappear, there will be no safe way to remove social isolation protocols. Attempts will be made, as early as late-April for some states, and they will experience resurgences of the virus. The process of finding the balance between social distancing and safely interacting with others is going to be long, arduous, and frustrating.
However, there is no other way to go about this other than to test what works and what doesn’t. At least until a suitable vaccine can be produced en masse. Even with the astounding speed at which the development of possible vaccines is going, we are still looking at somewhere between one to two years until it is ready for the world. Per Healthline:
Despite positive reports from initial clinical trials, experts tell Healthline the best-case scenario for a vaccination delivered to market is probably 18 months to 2 years.
One to two years is a long time, long enough for consumers to change habits and expectations.
We are in the midst of witnessing daily operations abruptly shift across the board, with hardly a single industry unaffected. While this will prove fatal for some businesses, the majority will adapt and assume a new way of doing things. Restaurants will improve their to-go and delivery systems, and offer pre-made meal kits for patrons to make their favorite meals at home. Doctors will diagnose and treat non-critically ill patients via telemedicine programs. Internet providers will (much to their chagrin) be forced to remove arbitrary data caps and remove speed throttling now that it’s obvious how easily they can do so. Offices will adjust their work-from-home policies and protocols as more people appreciate the benefits of staying at the home-office, like avoiding a daily commute.
These dramatic shifts won’t disappear when the virus is contained. Two years, or hell, even one year, is long enough for these changes to become routine. Telemedicine, when used for non-critical cases, puts healthcare workers at less risk of becoming ill and protects patients from exposing themselves to others in the clinic waiting room. Many others have written about the benefits (and pitfalls) of working from home, so I will spare you my take, but it is inconceivable that businesses will be able to deny workers the opportunity to do so at least part of the time moving forward.
“Once they’ve done it, they’re going to want to continue,” said Kate Lister, president of consulting firm Global Workplace Analytics, which is currently running a survey about work-from-home participation. She predicts that 30 percent of people will work from home multiple days per week within a couple of years.”
The changes are here to stay. They will of course be less of a requirement than they are now (you will still need to force yourself to get an in-person physical every couple of years… sorry), but there is no turning back the clock on this one.
The rational fear inspired by COVID-19 will long outlast the virus.
For many of us, COVID-19 penetrated our sense of security and safety. American exceptionalism came crashing down in a staggering bonfire. Below are snippets of real conversations I’ve had over the past months which illustrate the continuous disbelief and denial many are under.
“Wuhan is a crowded city with terrible sanitation, it won’t happen to us”
“China is completely different, their healthcare system is antiquated, it won’t happen to us”
“Italy’s population is significantly older, this is an anomaly, it won’t happen to us”
“New York is so dense, other U.S. cities aren’t, it won’t happen to us”.
I am not sure when our country will begin to realize that the virus will find ways to devastate communities across the country, agnostic to city density, average temperature, and geography. It is imperative that it does happen though. Humans are versatile, but before we can effectively make adjustments we must acknowledge reality.
All to say that, for better or for worse (though likely for the better in the long run), American exceptionalism has been dealt a fatal blow. This will not be undone with a vaccine. The United States is going to have to reckon with the fact that COVID-19 will likely have multiple resurgences. We will have to accept that other viruses will sweep across the planet like this one has. Some will be less dangerous, some more.
Our priorities will change in order for us to survive. And yes, fear will drive much of that change and that is completely fine. As humans, we adapt. And so will your business.
Learn To Live With The Elephant
So we are in agreement that we must be in this for the long haul. Now we can focus on how your business can adapt to life with the COVID-19 elephant lingering in the room like an unwanted and unshakable houseguest.
I wholeheartedly believe that for many businesses there are solutions to the problems we are plagued by.
Many of you are in triage-mode right now. I know I am, and I have spoken to many other small business owners whose primary concern right now is staying afloat. Federal aid programs will hopefully continue to come in and help stymie the bleeding, allowing enough breathing room for semi-permanent adjustments and innovations. There will be a time, hopefully sooner than later, that the holes in the raft have been plugged and you will be tasked with shifting to deciding how things look moving forward.
What does that look like? It will vary from business to business, with some only requiring slight adjustments and staffing reductions and some demanding a full reassessment of how they provide services to their customers. I wish I knew the magic bullet that would put your business in the best position possible to survive this, but because this is all constantly changing, it requires a complete reset in mindset and problem solving paradigms. I plan to continue to spend my time searching for those answers, and wholeheartedly believe that for many businesses there are solutions to the problems we are plagued by. Perhaps even new opportunities.
Observations
As I continue to ruminate on and study what steps can be taken to adapt, pivot if needed, and excel as a business in our new reality, I intend to share more pieces that dive into my findings. In the meantime, here are some partial thoughts and theories I have.
Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands have a leg-up at the start of this wave of change thanks to their lack of reliance on physical stores, generally low overhead, and ability to crank up their digital channels to take advantage of quarantined consumers. Look to dominant DTC industry leaders Casper and Warby Parker for strategies and plans moving forwards. Also keep an eye on newcomers like Equal Parts, Open Spaces, and JUDY, all of which had strong starts of out of the gates, to see how they adapt this early into their lifecycles.
Weak DTC brands, including copycat companies, will quickly meet their demise as consumers will be much less willing to pay for an inferior product. Money will be spent, but it will be spent cautiously.
A significant amount of dentists, optometrists, and private practice groups will not survive the first wave of the virus. With high overhead costs and a population less inclined to spend money on high-margin procedures not covered by insurance, there is little light at the end of the tunnel. Opportunities for remote services are sparse in these spaces, so there isn’t much respite there. I am still thinking on this one, as I desperately want to find an avenue for these vital companies to generate income and make it through this.
Restaurants and food groups will shift towards operating with a DTC mindset. Meal kits will become common and brochure websites for restaurants will be a thing of the past. Expect some exciting innovations in the ecommerce space. Even with these changes, layoffs will be unavoidable, though I have hope that workers can shift their duties to adjust to new needs (i.e. delivery services, logistics, kit preparation) if restaurant owners make space for it.
Universal Basic Income, in some form or another and implemented by either of the major political parties in the US, is an inevitability. New brands that can market themselves as essential and reasonable for those whose primary income is their UBI allotment will emerge and dominate the market.
Onward
In these unsettling times, what gives me hope is my belief that we will be able to establish a new normal, one that accounts for the changes that society will go through in the coming years, and one that allows for businesses to thrive once again. I look forward to weathering the storm with all of you and sharing everything I can to help find space for you in the world that emerges from this pandemic.